2024 Local Elections - Printable Version

+- Pres Café (https://pres.cafe)
+-- Forum: Pres Café TV and Radio Forums (https://pres.cafe/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: News and Sport Presentation (https://pres.cafe/forumdisplay.php?fid=3)
+--- Thread: 2024 Local Elections (/showthread.php?tid=739)

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - interestednovice - 04-05-2024

(04-05-2024, 04:42 PM)RhysJR Wrote:  Sky News getting critisicm for projecting

Just out of interest, how do these broadcaster predictions work?

The BBC made a totally different (on the face of it, a more correct-seeming one) prediction of projected national share.

Does each broadcaster adjust for various factors and do their own analysis, or do they partner up with companies like YouGov to help them analyse the results?

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - Steve in Pudsey - 04-05-2024

Isn't is usually a combination of exit polls and experts like Prof Sir John Curtice's analysis?

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - UTVLifer - 04-05-2024

For the local elections, the Projected National Share is "estimate of how the country would have voted if everywhere had had a local election", which is calculated by the broadcasters and their respective election analysts and experts, unlike the GE exit poll which is done collectively

Also because there haven't been any local elections in Scotland this year, the PNS numbers doesn't take the Scottish electoral dynamics and the SNP into account

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g935ynj18o 

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - Keith - 04-05-2024

(04-05-2024, 04:42 PM)NickyS Wrote:  Actually you might be right (correcting myself) ...

For what its worth the background currently being used on the (UK) news channel is different to what I saw earlier, whilst Geeta was presenting.

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - dvboy - 04-05-2024

(04-05-2024, 06:15 PM)Keith Wrote:  For what its worth the background currently being used on the (UK) news channel is different to what I saw earlier, whilst Geeta was presenting.

It's a World simulcast now I think, while Geeta was presenting a UK opt-out.

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - RhysJR - 04-05-2024

John Curtice is a legendary figure, but it's quite amazing how much he is on air in and around election day.

https://x.com/scottygb/status/1786812750674510264 

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - XIII - 04-05-2024

I'm surprised a lot of the presenters, political editors and contributors are functioning given the amount of travelling, late nights etc

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - Andrew - 04-05-2024

Laura doesn’t help herself. She gets a tonne of abuse online at the best of times, but then she tweets unverified rumours as fact

I don’t know where the rumour started but it became much more credible when a senior political journalist posts it rather than just a party activist

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - XIII - 04-05-2024

The journalists made the error of looking at turnout. It was up in the outer London and a bit down in inner London but that doesn't tell you the whole story and the results was egged faces all round.

---

RE: 2024 Local Elections - James2001 - 04-05-2024

It's not even as if the difference in turnout was huge anyway (something like 3% up in outer boroughs and 2% down in the inner ones), so I'm not sure why anyone thought they could read much into that.

---