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Found a 2019 interview with Tom Bradby where he talks (from 2 minutes in) about what it's like getting the exit poll numbers 15-20 minutes before they can reveal them on air
youtu.be
(This post was last modified: 22-06-2024, 07:25 PM by
UTVLifer.)
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In terms of the exit poll, the team who model it based on the 'second' secret ballot data collected by Ipsos (it isn't actually the results of a poll that are broadcast) are located at the BBC under John Curtice and are kept under guard in a windowless room without access to their mobile phones. The only communication they have with the outside world is the data coming in and food deliveries, while being escorted when they need the toilet. Typically, they know the basic result by midday, but only begin to finalise the story and headline* from the early-evening. Representatives of the broadcasters are briefed in person (at the BBC) as late as possible during the 21:00 hour, though the seat tally is not finalised until fairly late. Graphic producers are among first to be told, but some senior correspondents definitely know in advance - Andrew Marr is known to have asked the May team for a response in 2017 slightly before 22:00.
*The headline - e.g., 'Labour landslide', 'Hung parliament', 'Conservative majority' or 'Conservatives largest party' - is decided by the exit poll team based on specific guidelines. For instance, in 2015 and 2017 'Conservatives largest party' was chosen rather than 'hung parliament' as a Conservative majority was a possibility within the error margins.
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According to David Dimbleby on the swing time programme I linked to a few pages back, he talks about how in 1992, when he first went on air there was a picture of Neil Kinnock and a narrow Labour majority on his screen... then all of a sudden it changed to a hung parliament and a picture of Major, so clearly that year they were making tweaks to the poll right until the last minute. And still got it wrong.
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I think we might see some effect of the rehearsals for ITV's programme on their bulletins from next week. Not quite sure how obvious it will be on screen, they are normally very good at hiding these things.
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(22-06-2024, 09:10 PM)James2001 Wrote: According to David Dimbleby on the swing time programme I linked to a few pages back, he talks about how in 1992, when he first went on air there was a picture of Neil Kinnock and a narrow Labour majority on his screen... then all of a sudden it changed to a hung parliament and a picture of Major, so clearly that year they were making tweaks to the poll right until the last minute. And still got it wrong.
Yes, but some crucial differences around that exit poll to the modern one - in terms of methodology, reputation and the secrecy around it (the Kinnock graphics were allegedly being projected on the big screen ahead of broadcast, for guests and an open viewing gallery to see, which supposedly contributed to the folk myth that the exit poll predicted a Labour victory).
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(22-06-2024, 09:13 PM)newsjunkie Wrote: I think we might see some effect of the rehearsals for ITV's programme on their bulletins from next week. Not quite sure how obvious it will be on screen, they are normally very good at hiding these things.
Usually it's an obvious yet subtle extension to the desk. Interesting looking back at 2010 they had a completely different desk combination to the main news rather than a variation of it.
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Re exit polls, there was a clip from the BBC gallery pre-10pm last time where Chris as director calls something like ‘give me the graphic’ at literally 10 seconds to the hour so it’s as last minute as it can be.
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(22-06-2024, 10:05 PM)steve Wrote: Re exit polls, there was a clip from the BBC gallery pre-10pm last time where Chris as director calls something like ‘give me the graphic’ at literally 10 seconds to the hour so it’s as last minute as it can be.
Yes, presumably to keep it secret until absolutely as late as they can. Once it's loaded into a graphics engine and on monitor stacks it's not secret any more
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Found the Mason/Nolan exit poll clip from 2017.
x.com
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(22-06-2024, 05:37 PM)Stuart Wrote: I think that is the best solution.
No broadcaster can legally give a prediction before 22:00 on the day, so the revelation is equally new to the presenters/guests on each channel. The reactions are therefore genuine.
It was 100% acting unless Sky were frozen out which is unlikely. I think it's 9.40pm they get them.