[Medianext.MX]

So we can say that there is a reasonable chance that M6 is going to lose?

Well, the plans presented by Six, although well-resourced, don't mean M6 is going to lose the franchise round. M6 is counter-offering with an increase on the production of French content, and boosting its news programming offerings thanks to the use of RTL resources. Additionally, M6 has a large string of sports content which, for them, wouldn't be very good to lose them, especially as the Rugby World Cup is close. To sum it up, M6 is longer-established and has a pretty good reputation by the French population, even if it has often become criticised for its tutti-frutti family-oriented populist remit; it also benefits from RTL's resources, especially since M6 took over the radio networks and has used many of its resources on the TV side (RTL reporters and specialists working on M6's newscasts, Julien Courbet's show airing on the channel and on radio, and RTL2's morning show airing on W9...)

In the other hand, Six's presentation video looks like something made for a digital TNT channel bid, and, although the plans might solve many of M6's existing woes, Niel (even with his vast experience on the telecoms and media side) doesn't have the experience to run a TV channel on its own (even through Mediawan). If Six wins, it will be a big and unexpected surprise, and the biggest realignment on French TV since 2005; however, I'm inclined for a M6 license renewal given its history and its recent improvements thanks to RTL.