[Stuart]

Most observers do seem to think May 2024 is more likely.  Regardless I think since Brexit political news coverage has been much more mainstream anyhow.

Which observers are these? 

Brown thought he was going to lose in 2009, so just allowed the Parliament to expire at the end of the mandate in May 2010. I don't see anything different happening here, other than pointless media speculation which will eventually bore the public long before the event in January 2025. Despite being a media and pres geek, I don't think I could put up with it for 18 months.

No Government gives up early unless they think they're going to win. It's really quite self-defeating if you already have a large working majority.

2015 was as a result of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which has since been repealed.  The GEs of 2017 and 2019 were because we had a small majority/minority government. None of those circumstances apply now. I hope the media don't become obsessed with speculation.

We don't want to all turn into 'Beryl from Bristol' saying "not another one". 

[all new phil]

Which observers are these? 

Brown thought he was going to lose in 2009, so just allowed the Parliament to expire at the end of the mandate in May 2010. I don't see anything different happening here, other than pointless media speculation which will eventually bore the public long before the event in January 2025. Despite being a media and pres geek, I don't think I could put up with it for 18 months.

No Government gives up early unless they think they're going to win. It's really quite self-defeating if you already have a large working majority.

2015 was as a result of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which has since been repealed.  The GEs of 2017 and 2019 were because we had a small majority/minority government. None of those circumstances apply now. I hope the media don't become obsessed with speculation.

We don't want to all turn into 'Beryl from Bristol' saying "not another one". 

But just as you have one example of a PM running down the clock when they knew they were going to lose, there are plenty of examples too of PMs going to the country before they had to and losing. You can’t just take one example and claim that “no government gives up early”.

[freeview87]

Indeed, i think the government will be railroaded into holding it in spring next year or October at very latest. I'd be surprised if they took it to December.

[XIII]

Most observers do seem to think May 2024 is more likely.  Regardless I think since Brexit political news coverage has been much more mainstream anyhow.

January 2025 is unlikely because it would mean campaigning over Christmas which no one wants to do.

[Stuart]

Indeed, i think the government will be railroaded into holding it in spring next year or October at very latest. I'd be surprised if they took it to December.

There is no facility for anyone to do the 'railroading' within Parliament, it's the choice of the PM of the day.  I certainly wouldn't try to persuade my Boss to put me out of a job earlier than necessary.

The 2019 GE was in December, that didn't seem to stop any campaigning.  Wouldn't any sitting Government want to wait until as late as possible in the hope that things improve?  Furthermore, I can't see the BBC managing to cover a US Presidential election/aftermath and a UK GE campaign at the same time.

Even I'd find it all as political overload.

---

But just as you have one example of a PM running down the clock when they knew they were going to lose, there are plenty of examples too of PMs going to the country before they had to and losing. You can’t just take one example and claim that “no government gives up early”.

I can only think of two examples (1974 and 2017) which were where people had low or non-existent majorities in the Commons and couldn't pass legislation. Governments with a good working majority don't do that unless they think they'll win.

---

[Brekkie]

I suspect broadcasters are increasingly planning for a snap general election sooner rather than later if the fall out over the next few days gets as messy as I suspect it might.

[Stuart]

I suspect broadcasters are increasingly planning for a snap general election sooner rather than later if the fall out over the next few days gets as messy as I suspect it might.

Just media speculation, as the current Government has a very good working majority. 

I suspect broadcast planning for the GE is well established. They can also have another trial run at the local elections in May next year. I think we already know how well it will look in NBH-B.

[DTV]

I suspect broadcasters are increasingly planning for a snap general election sooner rather than later if the fall out over the next few days gets as messy as I suspect it might.

Doubt it, if anything Johnson resigning makes Sunak's position more secure as he was pretty much the only 'viable' challenger for the leadership. Even if there is any big fallout, very unlikely for it to make it politically necessary for an early election - especially as the government's sole remaining hope is a clear economic recovery in the next year-and-a-bit.

As Stuart says, this is pretty much a classic 'run out the clock' parliament - Autumn 2024 overwhelmingly the most likely date and, from what I understand, what CCHQ are planning for.

[aaron_scotland]

I suspect broadcasters are increasingly planning for a snap general election sooner rather than later if the fall out over the next few days gets as messy as I suspect it might.

I’m hoping GB News lasts long enough so we can see what a GE looks like on their channel.

I don’t it will be earlier than it can be, why when you have a majority

[London Lite]

I’m hoping GB News lasts long enough so we can see what a GE looks like on their channel.

I don’t it will be earlier than it can be, why when you have a majority

I'm imagining a shouty Patrick Christys at the video wall with the stats and Mark Dolan.